Crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz walks through the latest legacy market data, crypto fund flows, technical setups, and macroeconomic catalysts. With a measured tone, he suggests that while Bitcoin is holding up well, broader markets may need time to cool off before resuming any upward momentum.
🔍 Key Market Outlook
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Strong Crypto Inflows Last Week: Over $3 billion flowed into crypto investment products, with $2.75 billion from the US alone. BlackRock continues to lead ETF flows. Ethereum saw $326M in inflows, while Solana and Ripple underperformed.
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No Immediate Fed Cuts Expected: Josh emphasizes that until unemployment rises, the Fed is unlikely to cut rates. PCE data on Friday is the key metric this week, while CPI and GDP are seen as less relevant short-term.
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September Could Be the Pivot Month: The market is pricing in no rate changes until September. Josh suggests a familiar pattern may emerge: market weakness in September followed by a year-end rally.
📉 Technical and Price Action Analysis
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Bitcoin Outlook: BTC remains around $109K–110K. Upside may be capped near $122K, with downside risk toward $93K. Josh recommends a tight trailing stop at $106.6K and notes a possible new Williams fractal setup forming.
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Alts Still Lagging: Altcoins remain underwhelming. Josh doesn't see enough reward to justify the risk, advising patience with ETH and others until at least late June.
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Global Liquidity Index: Liquidity is rising, which Josh views as bullish for BTC and other fixed-supply assets like gold. This provides some support and may limit downside.
🌎 Macro Trends and Risks
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Tariffs and Inflation: New tariffs and rising core inflation could impact consumer prices. Despite mixed data (e.g., container ship counts), Josh sees evidence of potential cost-push inflation.
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US Dollar Weakness: The dollar remains soft, aiding liquidity. However, a reversal (e.g., a move from 100 to 105) could pressure crypto markets in Q3.
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Long-Term Bond Risk: Rising bond yields and poor long-end performance may force future yield curve control, potentially pressuring governments and impacting broader markets.
📊 Broader Market and Equity Chart Notes
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Legacy Markets Overbought: SPY, QQQ, and risk-on ETFs (e.g., ARK, UFO, Quantum) are all extended. Josh sees signs of exhaustion and suggests a pullback is healthy and likely.
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Watch for Better Entries: He advises against fresh longs at current levels. Most equities need time to consolidate or show breakout confirmation above the cloud before becoming attractive again.
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Gold and Spotify: Gold remains technically bullish, though not an ideal entry right now. Spotify, on the other hand, looks strong and poised for price discovery.
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Speculative Charts: GME might see BTC-related hype, but Josh avoids it. Reddit and Disney show failed breakouts, and names like Rocket Labs and CD Projekt Red may need more time to develop bullish setups.
🧩 Final Thoughts from Josh
Josh believes that despite strong crypto flows and rising global liquidity, the market overall is due for a breather. He stresses that patience and strategic entries are essential right now, especially with macro uncertainty ahead. For now, the playbook remains the same: wait for unemployment to rise, monitor inflation, and avoid chasing overbought charts. Bitcoin looks resilient, but a short-term cooldown across markets is both expected and healthy.
