Volatility is peaking, M2 is rising, and Lark says we’re about to find out what this market’s really made of.
Lark breaks down today’s tariff moment and whether the market reacts with panic or relief. His tone is cautious but optimistic, especially with liquidity tailwinds building fast.
🌐 Liberation Day = Final Uncertainty Event
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Trump’s reciprocal tariffs drop today, estimates between 10-20%
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Market may be setting up a “sell the rumor, buy the news” moment
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Key sectors at risk: tech, consumer goods, autos
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Watch for fake headlines and intraday noise
📊 Bitcoin Battling Key Levels
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BTC fighting to close above 20-day and 200-day EMAs near $88K
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MACD trending up, but confirmation still pending
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Lark: “A daily close above $88K could flip sentiment fast”
🧠 M2 and Macro Alignment
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Global M2 rising fast, which has preceded past bull legs
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Depending on the lag model, major upside could hit anytime between now and May
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MVRV model suggests we’re far from a cycle top
🐢 Retail Still Missing
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Retail not back yet in any meaningful way
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Lark: “Retail’s not even at appetizers yet. Wait for the main course”
📉 Altcoins Still Bleeding
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Total altcoin index rejected at the 20-day EMA 11+ times
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Most alts in multi-month downtrends, no major breakout signals
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Only EOS showed real strength, and even Lark says “I’m not buying it”
💩 Memecoin Watch
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Fartcoin holding up while everything else bleeds
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Lark still has orders set low, but admits, “it’s the only thing that looks strong”
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Dogwifhat and Pepe still nuked, but may return during a retail mania
📈 IPO & ETF Narrative Building
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GameStop raise oversubscribed at $1.5B, could go straight into BTC
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Lark sees this as potential kickoff for a crypto IPO mania cycle
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Circle IPO might trigger the kind of mania we haven’t seen since Coinbase’s 2021 top
🤔 Market Sentiment Poll
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48% of Lark’s audience thinks this is a mid-cycle pullback
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Lark worries when the herd agrees, but says April will decide it
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“If April closes weak, it opens the door for May or June bounce. If April rips, buckle up.”
🧠 Final Take:
Lark remains cautiously optimistic. He sees the potential for this to be the start of a new leg up, especially as M2 liquidity flows in and retail remains mostly sidelined. “This ain’t over. We’ve barely begun. The soup and salad haven’t even arrived yet.”
