Lark Davis argues that the crypto bull market has not fully begun, despite price appreciation earlier in 2024. Using technical indicators, sentiment data, and macro trends, he outlines why he expects significant upside for Bitcoin and key altcoins. He also discusses portfolio allocation, institutional adoption, and ongoing regulatory shifts.
Key Points:
1. Bitcoin Market Outlook
-
Strong weekly reversal candle and breakout from a multi-week downtrend.
-
Price reclaiming key EMAs (20-day, 50-day); MACD and RSI turning bullish.
-
Low volume is the main concern, but price structure suggests continuation.
2. Sentiment and Positioning
-
Market sentiment remains bearish despite rising prices; seen as a bullish contrarian signal.
-
Retail is still largely absent, with no signs of typical cycle euphoria.
-
Institutional flows continue steadily into Bitcoin and now altcoins.
3. Ethereum and Altcoins
-
ETH gaining momentum due to ETF inflows, improving fundamentals, and upcoming scaling upgrades.
-
Lark holds long positions in ETH and XRP, with targets of $3,000+ for ETH.
-
Meme coins are outperforming and may continue leading; many Layer 1s underperforming but could rally later.
4. Institutional & Regulatory Catalysts
-
Dozens of treasury-backed crypto buyers are emerging, not just for BTC, but also ETH, SOL, and XRP.
-
Bitcoin ETF inflows are exceeding expectations; compared to gold, this could extend the cycle into 2026.
-
Upcoming U.S. stablecoin legislation could lead to adoption by firms like Apple, Google, X, and Airbnb.
5. Risk Considerations
-
Future bear markets are inevitable, potentially triggered by leverage failures, rehypothecation, or custodian issues.
-
Corrections may be less extreme (around 50 percent) compared to prior cycles (around 70 to 80 percent), but investors should stay cautious.
-
Concerns raised about over-centralization (for example, risk of Coinbase custody failures).
6. Portfolio & Strategy
-
Lark is shifting capital from slow Layer 1s (like Avalanche) into higher-performing meme coins.
-
Emphasizes technical confirmation (such as breaks of 20-day EMA) before entering trades.
-
Highlights ETH, XRP, Pepe, Brett, and Dogwifhat as key positions he's monitoring or holding.
Conclusion:
Lark’s central message is that the real bull market may still lie ahead. Institutional adoption is accelerating, retail participation is low, and technical signals are turning bullish. While risks remain, particularly related to leverage and custodial failures, he expects upside continuation, especially as altcoins and meme coins start catching up. Patience and strategic positioning are key in this stage of the cycle.
