A potential US-China trade deal is boosting market sentiment, and Bitcoin is on a tear — but Lark is cautious of a near-term pullback. He remains heavily positioned in BTC and altcoins but is holding stablecoins for strategic entries. Meme coins are dominating attention, and early signals are pointing toward a shift from Bitcoin season to altcoin season.
📰 Macro Tailwinds: US-China Trade De-escalation
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Ongoing trade talks between the US and China have led to a 90-day mutual tariff rollback, sparking optimism across global markets.
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S&P futures are up ~3%, showing that risk-on sentiment is back.
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Lark views this de-escalation as a major relief for both traditional and crypto markets.
📈 Bitcoin Technicals & Pullback Watch
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Bitcoin has surged from $74K to $105K in just weeks, with no major pullback — a potential red flag.
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Weekly MACD bull cross just confirmed, typically a very strong signal (last time it happened, BTC ran from $69K to $109K).
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Lark warns of a potential "double top" trap if this week’s candle doesn't close strongly above prior highs.
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$1.45 billion in long positions could be liquidated if BTC dips below ~$102.7K, making the pullback zone a target for whales.
🪙 Altcoin Outlook: Alt Season May Be Starting
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Bitcoin dominance just flashed its first daily sell signal since Nov 2024 — often a precursor to altcoin strength.
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BlockchainCenter's Altcoin Season Index is shifting, suggesting a transition from Bitcoin to altcoin outperformance.
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Lark emphasizes this is where altcoins can massively outperform BTC, even if Bitcoin continues upward.
🧠 Lark’s Portfolio Positioning
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Currently holds:
Key Highlights:-
~55% in BTC
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~40%+ in altcoins
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~4% in stablecoins (waiting for pullback opportunities)
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Avoiding new positions unless price confirms breakout or meaningful dip
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No recent meme coin buys, but watching for new entries — especially after missed opportunities like Mudang (660% in 5 days)
🔥 Meme Coins, ETH, and ETH Alternatives
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Lark praises meme coin winners like Pepe, Titcoin, Mudang, and regrets missing out on bigger entries.
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Believes meme coins have become a core narrative and generate serious gains despite being speculative.
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No longer holds ETH — shifted funds into other higher-beta plays. He respects ETH but sees better opportunity elsewhere.
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Still holds Aptos, IOTA, and other alt L1s with speculative upside.
📊 Notable Mentions:
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XRP: Watching a potential triangle breakout with a target near $4.50 if confirmed.
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Avalanche (AVAX): Technically improving but still underperforming relative to fundamentals.
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SAY: Strong on-chain growth, but still under the 200-day MA — needs a confirmed breakout.
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Altcoins are showing stronger user and transaction growth, hinting at deeper strength building.
🎯 Final Take:
Lark remains bullish but measured. Macro conditions are improving, and Bitcoin is strong — but a healthy correction could be near after a relentless run. The shift toward altcoin season is beginning, meme coins are leading the way, and serious money may be made over the coming weeks. His strategy: stay positioned, stay selective, and wait for clear setups to deploy stablecoins.
