Paul Barron talks with Blockchain Association's Lindsey Fraser about what happened Friday and why this week decides everything for the Clarity Act.
Key Points
Key Highlights:
- Lindsey puts the odds at 60%, way higher than Polymarket's 31%, because the delayed bill text means more time to get Democrats on board instead of rushing out a Republican only version
- The one thing blocking everything is an ethics rule stopping officials and their families from profiting off crypto, they need about 10 Democrats to vote yes once that gets solved
- The House leaves for its summer break this week, so if the Senate does not vote before then, the bill just sits around for a month doing nothing until September
- Banks are still trying to weaken the stablecoin rewards section, but Lindsey says it is mostly a stalling tactic since studies show it barely affects them
- If the Senate does not vote before break, the odds crash from 60% down to basically zero because senators go home and get pressured by the banks all over again
Takeaway This week is the real deadline, not whatever date people keep talking about. If the Senate does not act now, everything stalls for a month and the odds fall off a cliff.
