Paul Barron speaks with trader Gareth Soloway about rising geopolitical tension, tariff threats, and what this could mean for stocks, Bitcoin, and crypto markets over the coming months.
Key Points
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Trump’s tariff threats are creating short-term fear, but markets have seen this playbook before
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Big announcements are often timed before long weekends to let panic cool off
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If tariffs escalate and Europe pushes back, Soloway sees a real risk of a 10% stock market correction
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In the short term, fear still pulls Bitcoin down alongside stocks
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Technically, Bitcoin looks weak near-term, but downside appears limited to roughly $65k–$70k
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Past cycles show Bitcoin often bottoms near previous all-time highs
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Soloway expects more downside in the first half of the year, with recovery later
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Second half of the year looks more bullish as rate cuts and liquidity increase
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Ethereum could still drop further short-term, with $2,100 as a key support area
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Solana stands out as a relative strength play, especially tied to tokenized securities and on-chain trading
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Gold remains strong as a fear hedge, while silver looks overstretched and vulnerable to a pullback
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Rising long-term bond yields suggest growing concern about US debt and fiscal stability
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Over time, these pressures support Bitcoin’s long-term bullish case as a hedge
Takeaway
Soloway’s view is balanced: short-term volatility and downside risk are real, especially if markets de-risk. But structurally, Bitcoin and select crypto assets look closer to a late-cycle reset than a collapse, with better conditions likely forming in the second half of the year.
