Paul Barron breaks down Trump's proposed tax cut on capital gains and whether it's real or just election talk.

Key Points

Key Highlights:
  • The idea is to let inflation reduce your taxable gain, so if you bought Bitcoin years ago and sold for double, you'd only get taxed on the gain above inflation, not the whole profit
  • This would be huge for long term crypto holders specifically, since it directly cuts taxes on exactly the kind of multi-year gains people are sitting on right now
  • Kevin Hassett basically admitted this is campaign material for midterms, not something they're confident can actually get passed
  • With Democrats likely taking the House and the Senate up in the air, getting this through Congress before midterms is a longshot

Takeaway Would be a real win for crypto holders if it happens, but this smells more like election promises than actual policy. Don't bank on it landing anytime soon.