Benjamin thinks Ethereum’s price could fall further after recently dropping below an important support level called the “bull market support band.”

He looks at past cycles like 2019 and 2016 when a similar breach of this support level occurred. In those years, Ethereum ended up declining around 70% from its highs after first breaking down versus Bitcoin.

• Even after falling below the bull support band, Benjamin notes Ethereum kept dropping another 50% in those previous cycles before finally bottoming out.

• For the current situation, Benjamin believes Ethereum’s price could bleed out until around September 2024. He has a price target of around $1,400 for Ethereum, which would represent a 50% drop from current prices.

• Benjamin doesn’t expect major rallies to new highs. He thinks Ethereum will likely keep underperforming Bitcoin until the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates again, which he speculates could happen as soon as this summer.

His bearish view is based on monetary policy, not any issues with Ethereum itself. But he feels tighter monetary conditions will continue weighing on Ethereum versus Bitcoin until the Fed pivots to easier policy again.