Josh Olszewicz – Alt Coins: Trendless Chop (25.04.2024 Summary)

Josh Olszewicz – Alt Coins: Trendless Chop (25.04.2024 Summary)

The crypto market, especially altcoins, has been experiencing a prolonged period of trendless choppiness, according to Josh’s analysis.

Bitcoin, which often dictates the direction of the altcoin market, has lost its bullish momentum and is currently in a neutral zone, hovering above the cloud (a technical analysis indicator). This lack of a clear trend in Bitcoin has translated into a lackluster performance for most altcoins.

  • Josh emphasizes that the current market conditions don’t present compelling reasons to invest in altcoins. He advises against chasing the occasional pumps or trying to catch up on missed gains, as it’s essentially “squeezing blood from a stone.” Most altcoin charts exhibit neutral or bearish trends, and the overall market cap of altcoins (excluding stablecoins) remains bearish against Bitcoin.

However, Josh highlights a few exceptions, such as Near (NEAR), which shows promising signs of a potential trend reversal against Bitcoin. He suggests keeping an eye on projects like NEAR that demonstrate strong technicals and the possibility of breaking out from the current stagnation.

  • Looking ahead, Josh believes that the altcoin market could see a resurgence in the fourth quarter of this year, following the Bitcoin halving event. Historically, altcoins have experienced a late-cycle rotation against Bitcoin several months after a halving, although the timing can be tricky to pinpoint.

Josh’s Plan

In preparation for this potential altcoin revival, Josh is brainstorming a “meme coin portfolio” consisting of 10 to 20 carefully selected altcoins with historical chart data. The idea is to dollar-cost average into these coins over the next 30 weeks, capturing potential lows and benefiting from improving market conditions, such as lower interest rates and increased liquidity.

He cautions against impulsive trades and advises waiting for clear bullish signals before actively trading altcoins.

Overall, Josh’s analysis paints a picture of a currently subdued altcoin market, but with the potential for a resurgence on the horizon, especially for projects with solid fundamentals and favorable technical setups.