⚠️ Miles warns that contrary to popular belief, we are not in an altcoin bull run despite high Bitcoin prices and renewed retail interest. He presents several data points to support his claim:
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Altcoin Performance vs Bitcoin: The “Others BTC” chart, tracking altcoins outside the top 10, shows that altcoins are currently at a lower level than they were in October 2023 when the major Bitcoin rally began.
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Coins Breaking Previous All-Time Highs: Since the collapse of FTX, only 8 coins have managed to break their previous all-time highs against Bitcoin, suggesting most major altcoins have underperformed.
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Crypto YouTube Views: Despite Bitcoin being near $70,000, crypto YouTube channels are only getting around 800,000 views per day, compared to 4 million during the 2021 bull run, indicating low retail interest in altcoins.
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Bitcoin vs. Total 3 Performance: Bitcoin is currently only 9% away from its previous all-time high, while the Total 3 altcoin index is 78% away, indicating Bitcoin’s outperformance.
📉 Miles cites several reasons for altcoin underperformance, including the Bitcoin-led rally, lack of interest in most altcoin sectors except memecoins, AI, and RWAs, meme coin mania among retail investors, and an all-time high level of token dilution.
While acknowledging the bearish data, Miles remains optimistic about the mid to long-term prospects of the altcoin market. He believes the real altcoin party has not started yet, as altcoins have not broken the “tipping point” level of $790 billion in total market cap. Based on historical cycles, Miles expects a potential altcoin rally between late Q4 2024 and mid-Q2 2025.
